Opportunities for development of container shipping in coastal ports

                                     Opportunities for development of container shipping in coastal ports

Since 2018, the world economic and trade pattern has undergone profound adjustments. Global protectionism and unilateralism are on the rise, economic globalization is experiencing ups and downs, multilateralism and the free trade system are under impact, Sino-US trade frictions are escalating, and world trade is affected. The IMF predicts that the annual growth of goods and services trade will be 4.2%. Slow 1.0 percentage point. The shipping volume of my country‘s coastal ports is expected to reach 9.44 billion tons, basically achieving the expected growth.

  In the context of increasing downward pressure on the domestic and foreign economies, the main indicators of coastal port production in 2019 will continue to maintain steady growth, but the growth rate will slow slightly compared with 2018. In addition, the continued advancement of supply-side structural reforms, the uncertainty of domestic and foreign economic and trade situations, and the integration of port resources are worthy of attention.

 2018

 Cargo shipping volume has basically achieved expected growth　Container shipping has achieved rapid growth

 In 2018, coastal port shipping volume is expected to reach 9.44 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. Due to increasing uncertainties in the external environment, the process and impact of Sino-US trade frictions exceeded expectations, and the growth rate of coastal port production has slowed down. The annual growth rate was only faster than 2015 and 2016.

 Port construction investment continues to decline 　Listed company profits keep growing

In recent years, the adaptability of port throughput capacity has been maintained at a moderately advanced level, once reaching an advanced level. The supply-demand relationship and the development of the new port area have intensified competition. The debt problems of some terminal companies have begun to appear, and the role of market regulation has also played a role. Construction investment for 6 consecutive years Negative growth, the relationship between supply and demand tends to improve, and resource integration continues to advance. In 2018, the investment in the construction of coastal ports is expected to be less than 50 billion yuan, and 45 coastal berths above 10,000 tons will be added. The investment decline is close to 20%. The adaptability of shipping capacity further drops to 1.22, which is still in a moderately advanced range.

  In 2018, the growth rate of port shipping volume slowed down, but corporate profits continued to maintain steady growth. In the first three quarters, except for Xiamen Port, Chongqing Port and Kowloon Port, and Tianjin Port, the net profits of other listed port companies achieved growth. The total net profit of the entire port sector increased by 8.2%, and the main business income during the same period increased by 9.1% year-on-year. 

In 2018, the integration of port resources in coastal provinces continued to advance. Liaoning Port Group, Bohai Bay Port Group, and Anhui Port Operation Group Co., Ltd. were established one after another, basically forming a “one province, one port” pattern, which can improve bargaining power to a certain extent and be effective Avoid regional competition and improve resource utilization efficiency.

　　Container shipping volume maintained steady growth in 2019　Bulk bulk imports have slowed

 Port container shipping has always been a barometer of the economic and trade situation. Coastal port production in 2019 still faces the impact of many uncertainties. Based on the judgment of the world economic and trade situation and my country’s economic and trade development trends, combined with the port’s own development trends, a comprehensive judgment of coastal ports in 2019 Container shipping volume reached 9.77 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of about 3.5%, and the growth rate has slowed down compared with 2018.

 　In terms of container shipping, the downside risk of the world economy in 2019 will increase, and the growth rate may exceed the apex of this round of growth cycle, and there will be a slight decline. However, under the influence of negative factors such as rising trade protectionism and strong uncertainty in Sino-US trade frictions, the growth rate of international trade will decline. my country‘s economic growth will slow down in 2019, but the continuous force of the "six stability" policy will help boost market confidence, domestic consumer demand will be basically stable, and investment will stabilize and rebound. Based on the analysis of the world and my country’s economic and trade situation, it is estimated that in 2019, the national port container shipping volume will reach 260 million TEU, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, of which international routes will increase by 2.5%. The US routes are more uncertain, and the “Belt and Road” routes will continue. Maintained relatively rapid growth, and the domestic support and domestic trade line increased by approximately 5.6%.

From the perspective of the external environment, in 2019, the uncertainty of global economic and trade development will increase, and the downside risks will increase. my country‘s economic growth will further slow down. The port shipping volume will continue to maintain a low-speed growth trend, the growth rate will further slow down, and the large-scale construction of terminals is insufficient. , While the investment in coastal port construction has slowed down for 6 consecutive years, but the overall capacity adaptability is still in a moderately advanced range. The main investment of the port in 2019 is to improve collection and distribution channels, improve service functions, and respond to structural adjustments. 

In 2019, the integration of coastal port resources was greatly promoted, and the pattern of “one province, one port” was basically formed. The market concentration was greatly increased, which further improved the bargaining power with global shipping companies. The improvement of the business environment and cost reduction requirements will continue to affect port charges . Based on comprehensive judgments, port handling revenue and profits will increase compared with 2018. On the other hand, the profitability of the port also depends on the business structure, service level and capital operation capability. In general, the profitability of the port industry will tend to improve. Driven by profitability, CPSI will be slightly stronger than the broader market trend. At the same time, due to differences in profitability and capital structure adjustments, the share price trend of various port companies will diverge.

 Actively respond to the downward pressure on the domestic and foreign economies 　Continue to promote the high-quality development of ports

  In addition to focusing on port production in 2019, the continued advancement of supply-side structural reforms, the uncertainty of domestic and foreign economic and trade situations, and the integration of port resources are also worthy of attention.

　The maritime power will continue to promote high-quality development in the direction of “creating a world port” with the guidance of coastal ports. 2019 marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People‘s Republic of China, and is a crucial year for the decisive victory in building a well-off society in all respects. General Secretary Xi Jinping clearly pointed out that "the economic power must be the maritime power and the shipping power", and has successively issued the "facilities, technology, management, service", "good construction, management and development" and "creating the world port" for port development. Important instructions require ports to further enhance their service guarantee capabilities, further accelerate high-quality development, transform and upgrade, and improve quality and efficiency.

 　 Supply-side structural reforms continue to advance. The key direction of deepening the supply-side structural reform is "consolidation, enhancement, improvement, and smoothness." In the field of transportation, it is to make up for shortcomings, reduce costs, optimize the environment, strengthen services, focus on innovation, increase momentum, improve efficiency, and promote integration. Coastal ports are strengthening the construction of waterways, collection and distribution and other infrastructure facilities, effectively reducing logistics costs, further standardizing, and reducing port charges, while further optimizing the business environment, improving port service levels, and further tapping the potential of the application of new technologies in the port industry. Improve port production efficiency and level, and promote the integrated development of multiple transportation methods such as sea-rail combined transportation.

At present, the trend of port integration is becoming more and more obvious, and a new situation of integration of the whole province, intervention of central enterprises, and linkage of ports and shipping has gradually formed. The pattern of “one province, one port” has taken shape. Central enterprises such as China Merchants, COSCO, and shipping companies are more involved in the port. During the integration, the integration of ports and shipping in the Yangtze River Delta is gradually advancing. The future development trend of regional port integration, the power, difficulties and the necessity of implementation of large-scale port integration require further research.